Data/videos

Videos of lectures / panels

The Credibility Revolution in Inflation Expectations

The John Kuszczak Memoriał Lecture at the Bank of Canada, November 2024
Synopsis: In 2021-22, in the EZ and the UZ, inflation expectations unanchored and then re-anchored, perhaps not as deeply as before. Modern empirical work on inflation expectations has adopted all of the toolkit from applied micro to estimates credible quasi-causal relations. That work suggests that the energy price rise accounted for little of the unanchoring of inflation expectations, and that monetary policy can have a strong effect re-anchoring them.
Download the slides here
Watch the video here

Four r*'s: From Interest Rates to Inflation, and Back

Keynote lecture at the XXVII annual conference of the Central Bank of Chile, November 2024
Watch the video here

Monetary Policy in a Shock-Prone World

Relative Price Dispersion During the Inflation Disaster

Panel at the inaugural conference of the ChaMP network on "Current Issues for Monetary Policy Transmission, April 2024
Watch the video here

The Future Long-Run Level of Interest Rates

Panel at OeNB (Austrian Central Bank) SUERF meeting on “Equilibrium Real Interest Rates – concepts, current and future drivers: New insights and policy implications”, December 2023
This is an update of a talk initially given in August of 2023, at the annual meetings of the European Economic Association.
Download the slides here
Watch the video here

Inflation: What Happened and What Will Happen?

Lecture at the Internal Festival of Economics in Torino, June 2023
This draws heavily on my paper "The Burst of High Inflation in 2021-22: How and Why Did We Get Here?" and "What Can Keep Euro Area Inflation High?" but updated to reflect events until then, and directed at a broader audience
Download the slides here
Watch the video here

What Is Driving Inflation? Will It Stay High and What Can Policy Do About It?

Panel at the NBER Macroeconomics Annual 38th Meeting, April 2023
Synopsis: Elevated dispersion of relative prices across sectors, supply-demand decompositions, and unanchored inflation expectations do not by themselves tel us what is driving high inflation: they are symptoms not causes. Using shocks into VARs, I suggested that past fiscal policy was contributing little to inflation in 2023, and that the tightening of monetary policy in 2022 was going to lead to a sharp fall in inflation through the rest of 2023.
Download the slides here
Watch the video here

The Tradeoffs of a Higher Federal Debt

Probabilities of Inflation Disasters from Options Prices

The prices of inflation options give the cost of insuring against extreme events. They reveal the probability of these events as perceived by market participants. However, to construct probabilities of inflation disasters at the conventional 5-year-5-year horizon, the standard option pricing formus have to be modified in three ways: to account for the erosion of the real value of the options’ payoff, to account for the forward 5-year ahead starting horizon, and to account for the compensation for inflation risk. Below are data and figures for the probabilities of inflation disasters, making these adjustments. The data starts in January of 2011 and refers to US and EA inflation. This dataset can be freely used by other researchers.
Download the dataset and view figures using it in the website here
Github repository here

The Global Network of Liquidity Lines 

A central bank cross-border liquidity line is an agreement between two central banks to provide a collateralised loan of currency from one to the other. They have been around for a long time, but have risen in prominence since the global financial crisis. This dataset provides a comprehensive (to the best of our knowledge and ability) repository for all lines in place since 2000. This dataset was collated from public sources, so it can be freely used by other researchers.
Download the dataset and view figures using it in the website here
Github repository here

Measures of Disagreement over Expected Inflation

Simple measures of disagreement in expected inflation from the Michigan survey of consumers, the FRB New York survey of consumer expectations, and the ECB consumer expectations survey. This dataset was collated from public sources, so it can be freely used by other researchers.
Download the dataset and view figures using it in the website here
Github repository here

Historical Measures of US Expected Inflation Before 1978

Measures of expected inflation before the numerical answers to the Michigan survey of consumers were available. This dataset was collated from public sources, so it can be freely used by other researchers. The dataset was posted in June of 2024, and will not be updated.
Download the dataset and view figures using it in the website here
Github repository here