What is new?
11/23) New paper: "The London Consensus: Fiscal Policy and Public Debt"
08/23) Revised paper: "How do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed"
08/23) MacroMusings podcast on "A Crash Course on Crisis"
06/23) Slides and figures for "A Crash Course on Crisis" available for download
06/23) This website! New version, more than a decade after the previous one (with big thanks to Seyed Mahdi Hosseini)
06/23) Book on sale from June 6th: "A Crash Course on Crises"
05/23) New paper: "The market for inflation risk"
05/23) Published paper: "Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation"
04/23) Forthcoming paper: "What can keep euro area inflation high?"
04/23) Book coming out in June: "Crises na Economia Portuguesa: de 1910 a 2021"
03/23) Published paper: "The workings of liquidity lines between central banks"
03/23) Published paper: "How was the United States government able to borrow so much during the pandemic?"
03/23) Updated estimates of probabilities of inflation disasters in data page
12/22) Revised working paper: "Which r-star, public bonds or private investment? Measurement and policy implications"
I am a macroeconomist who does research at the intersection with finance, international, and applied econometrics. I have worked on the dynamics of inflation and its expectations, central bank balance sheets and liquidity programs, sticky information and rational inattention, and automatic fiscal stabilizers.