Working Papers
Title |
With whom and where |
Materials |
The Global Network of Liquidity Lines Current version: June 2025 First draft: May 2024 |
The Market for Inflation Risk Current version: April 2025 First draft: May 2023 |
with Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, and Sitong Ding CEPR discussion paper 20157 CFM discussion paper xxx Bank of England working paper 1028 |
Estimating the Rise in Expected Inflation from Higher Energy Prices Current version: September 2024 First draft: February 2024 |
The Anatomy of a Peg: Lessons from China's Parallel Currencies Current version: May 2024 First draft: June 2023 |
Which R-star: Public Bonds or Private Investment? Measurement and Policy Implications Current version: September 2022 First draft: May 2022 |
Unpublished manuscript |
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The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations Current version: December 2020 First draft: October 2020 |
CFM discussion paper 2033 |
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The Constraint on Public Debt When r < g But g < m Current version: March 2021 First draft: November 2020 |
CEPR discussion paper 15950 CFM discussion paper 2111 BIS working paper 939 |
Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles Current version: September 2020 First draft: April 2009 |
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Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves Current version: May 2017 First draft: January 2014 |
with Robert E. Hall. CEPR discussion paper 11578 NBER working paper 22761 CFM discussion paper 1634 Hoover Institution working paper 16114 |
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Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking Current version: July 2015 First draft: February 2013 |
with Robert E. Hall. CEPR discussion paper 10741 NBER working paper 21173 Hoover Institution working paper 15109 |
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When Should Policymakers Make Announcements? Current version: September 2011 First draft: June 2010 |
Unpublished manuscript |
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A Dynamic Measure of Inflation Current version: April 2009 First draft: June 2005 |
NBER working paper 11746 |
Published Articles
Title |
With whom and where |
Materials |
How do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed |
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The Four R-stars: from Interest Rates to Inflation and Back |
In Medium and Long-Run Trends in Interest Rates: Causes and Implications for Monetary Policy, edited by S. Bauduco, M. García Schmidt, A. Mian, and L. Villacorta, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile, forthcoming, 2025. |
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Jumpstarting an International Currency |
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How Likely Is An inflation Disaster? |
The London Consensus: Fiscal Policy and Public Debt |
with Andrés Velasco In The London Consensus, edited by Tim Besley and Andrés Velasco, LSE Press, forthcoming, 2025. |
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Household Disagreement About Expected Inflation |
with Salomé Fofana and Paula Patzelt In The Research Handbook of Inflation, edited by Guido Ascari and Riccardo Trezzi Edward-Elgar, chapter 15, April 2025. |
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What Can Keep Euro Area Inflation High? |
Economic Policy, 38 (115), 495-517, July 2023 |
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Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation |
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 113, 47-51, May 2023 |
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Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: Measurement and Implications |
In ECB Forum on Central Banking: Challenges for Monetary Policy in Rapidly Changing World, 2022 |
How Was the United States Government Able to Borrow So Much During the COVID-19 Pandemic? |
In Preserving Employer-Employee Links in the COVID-19 Era, edited by Michael Strain and Stan Veuger, American Enterprise Institute Press, chapter 10, 246-263, 2023. |
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The Workings of Liquidity Lines Between Central Banks |
with Saleem Bahaj In The Research Handbook of Financial Markets, edited by Refet Gurkaynak and Jonathan Wright, Edward-Elgar, chapter 5, 102-124, May 2023. |
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The Burst of High Inflation in 2021-22: How and Why Did We Get Here? |
In How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve--And How to Get it Back, edited by Michael Bordo, John Cochrane, and John Taylor, Hoover Institution Press, chapter 9, pp. 203-250, March 2023. |
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Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt |
Journal ofEconomic Perspectives, 36(4), 103-124, Fall 2022. |
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The Economics of Liquidity Lines Between Central Banks |
Helicopter Money: What Is It and What Does It Do? |
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Central Bank Swap Lines: Evidence on the Lender of Last Resort |
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Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment |
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Steady Prices, Sustainable Debt |
Finance & Development, 17-19, March 2022. |
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 307-361, Fall 2021. |
Optimal Automatic Stabilizers |
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Comment on "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Yes, But, We Disagree" |
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 35, 99-111, May 2021. |
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The ECB Strategy: The 2021 Review and Its Future |
with Lucrezia Reichlin, Klaus Adam, Warwick McKibbin, Michael McMahon, Giovanni Ricco, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro. CEPR Press, 2021. |
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The Fiscal Footprint of Macroprudential Policy |
In Independence, Credibility, and Communication of Central Banking, edited by E. Pasten, R. Reis, and D. Saravia, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 133-171, 2021. |
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Independence, Credibility, and Communication of Central Banking: An Overview |
Introduction to edited volume: Independence, Credibility, and Communication of Central Banking, edited by E. Pasten, R. Reis, and D. Saravia, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 1-14, 2021. |
Central Bank Swap Lines during the COVID-19 Pandemic |
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The Anchoring of Long-Run Inflation Expectations Today |
Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, BIS Papers 111, March 2020. |
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The Second Decade of the Euro: Old Challenges in New Clothes |
In ECB Forum on Central Banking: 20 Years of European Economic and Monetary Union, 132-141, June 2019. |
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A Solution to Sudden Stops |
Finance & Development, 56 (2), June 2019. |
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Central Banks Going Long |
In: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edited by A. Aguirre, M. Brunnermeier, and D. Saravia, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 43-81, 2019. |
Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? |
In The Economics of Central Banking, edited by David Mayes, Pierre Siklos and Jan-Egbert Strum, Oxford University Press Handbooks in Economics, March 2019, Oxford University Press. |
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Comment on “Inflation Expectations – a Policy Tool?” |
In ECB Forum on Central Banking: Price and Wage-Setting in Advanced Economies, 152-163, June 2018. |
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Comment on "Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs" |
International Journal of Central Banking, 14 (3), 325-335, June 2018. |
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Comment on "Michelson-Morley, Fisher and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Lower Bound" |
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 32, 246-260, May 2018. |
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Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought |
Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics? |
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34 (1-2), 132-155, 2018. |
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And Yet it Moves. Inflation and the Great Recession |
with David Miles, Ugo Panizza, and Angel Ubide Geneva Reports on the World Economy 19, CEPR Press, 2017. |
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QE in the Future: The Central Bank's Balance Sheet in a Fiscal Crisis |
IMF Economic Review, 65, 1-42, 2017. |
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ESBies: Safety in the Tranches |
with Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sam Langfield, Marco Pagano, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos. Economic Policy. 32 (40), 177-219, April 2017. |
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Comment on "Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?" |
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 31, 198-207, May 2017. |
Funding Quantitative Easing to Target Inflation |
In Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 423-479, August 2016. |
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The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies |
with Markus K. Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 106 (5), 508-512, May 2016. |
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Comment on "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina" |
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 98-106, Spring 2016. |
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Reinforcing the Eurozone and Protecting an Open Society: Monitoring the Eurozone II |
with Giancarlo Corsetti, Lars P Feld, Ralph S.J. Koijen, Lucrezia Reichlin, Hélène Rey, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro. CEPR Press, 2016. |
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Comment on "External and Public Debt Crises" |
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 30, 245-256, May 2016. |
The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle |
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Looking for a Success in the Euro Crisis Adjustment Programs: the Case of Portugal |
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 433-447, Fall 2015. |
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Different Types of Central Bank Insolvency and the Central Role of Seignorage |
Journal of Monetary Economics, 73, 20-25, July 2015. |
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Gerir a Dívida Pública |
In Afirmar o Futuro: Políticas Públicas para Portugal, ed. by Paulo T. Pereira and Viriato S. Marques, Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, 26-43, 2015 |
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Central Bank Design |
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27 (4), 17-44, Fall 2013. |
The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis |
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 46, 143-193, Spring 2013. |
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The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis |
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 103 (3), 135-40, May 2013. |
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Exit Strategies and the Federal Reserve |
In No Way Out: Government Interventions and the Financial Crisis, edited by Vincent Reinhart, American Enterprise Institute Press, February 2013. |
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Targeted Transfers and the Fiscal Response to the Great Recession |
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Comment on "Testing for Keynesian Labor Demand" |
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 27, 350-361, May 2013. |
Comment on "The Euro's Three Crises" |
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 212-219, Spring 2012. |
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Solução para Portugal: fazer mais com os Portugueses |
Portugal e o Futuro: Homenagem a Ernâni Lopes, edited by J. Vasconcellos e Sá, Vida Económica, 177-186, 2011. |
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ESBies: A Realistic Reform of Europe's Financial Architecture |
with Markus Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos. In The Future of Banking: A VoxEu.org Book, edited by Thorsten Beck, 15-20, October 2011. |
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European Safe Bonds (ESBies) |
with Markus Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos. euro-nomics.com, September 2011. |
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Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply |
with N. Gregory Mankiw In Handbook of Monetary Economics, edited by B. Friedman and M. Woodford, Elsevier-North Holland, vol. 3A, chapter 5, 183-230, 2010. |
Comment on "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?" |
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 245-253, Fall 2010. |
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Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation and the Phillips Correlation |
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Dynamic Measures of Inflation |
NBER Reporter, 3, September 2009. |
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Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09 |
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 40, 119-165, Spring 2009. |
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A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis |
In Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edited by K. Schmidt-Heubel, C. Walsh and N. Loayza, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, chapter 8, 227-283, 2009. |
Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model |
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1 (2), 1-28, July 2009. |
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The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations |
Journal of the European Economic Association, 7 (4), 722-753, June 2009. |
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The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions |
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Using VARs to Identify Models of Fiscal Policy: A Comment on Perotti |
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 22, 227-236, May 2008. |
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Sticky Information in General Equilibrium |
with N. Gregory Mankiw Journal of the European Economic Association, 5 (2-3), 603-613, April-May 2007. |
The Persistence of Inflation in the United States |
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The Analytics of Monetary Non-Neutrality in the Sidrauski Model |
Economics Letters, 94 (1), 129-135, January 2007. |
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Inattentive Consumers |
Journal of Monetary Economics, 53 (8), 1761-1800, November 2006. |
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Inattentive Producers |
Review of Economic Studies, 73 (3), 793-821, July 2006. |
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Pervasive Stickiness |
Understanding the Greenspan Standard |
with Alan S. Blinder In The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 11-96, August 2005. |
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Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies |
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Disagreement about Inflation Expectations |
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What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target? |
with N. Gregory Mankiw Journal of the European Economic Association, 1 (5), 1058-1086, September 2003. |
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Where Is the Natural Rate? Rational Policy Mistakes and Persistent Deviations of Inflation from Target |
Advances in Macroeconomics, 3 (1), article 1, 1-40, 2003. (Kenneth Arrow Prize for best economics paper by junior faculty in the B.E. Press in 2003.) |
Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Non-neutrality and Structural Slumps |
with N. Gregory Mankiw In Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps, edited by P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz and M. Woodford, Princeton University Press, 64-86, 2003. |
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Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve |
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Costs of Banking System Instability: Some Empirical Evidence |
Books
A Crash Course on CrisesMacroeconomic Concepts for Run-Ups, Collapses, and Recoveries
MARKUS K. BRUNNERMEIER AND RICARDO REIS Princeton University Press, 2023 ISBN: 978-0-691-22110-6 e-book: 978-0-691-22111-3 Available from:
Slides and figures for teachers:
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Crises na Economia PortuguesaDe 1910 a 2021
LUIS AGUIAR-CONRARIA, PEDRO BACAO, ISABEL HORTA CORREIA, JOSE ALBERTO FERREIRA, RICARDO REIS, JOSE TAVARES, NUNO VALERIO, JOSE VAREJAO Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos, 2023 ISBN: 978-989-9153-31-8 |
Financial support
My research currently benefits from the financial support of:
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