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RICARDO REIS
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Working Papers

​Title
With whom and where
​Materials
The London Consensus: Fiscal Policy and Public Debt
​

Current version: November 2023
First draft:  April 2023
with Andrés Velasco



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​Current draft
​bibtex


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How do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide For the Perplexed

Current version: August 2023
First draft:  December 2019
with Laura Castillo-Martinez



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​Current draft
​bibtex


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The Market for Inflation Risk

Current version: May 2023
First draft:  May 2023
with Saleem Bahaj​,  Robert Czech, and Sitong Ding​
Bank of England working paper 1028

​Current draft
Working paper version
​
Video of presentation
bibtex
Which R-star: Public Bonds or Private Investment? Measurement and Policy Implications
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Current version: September 2022
First draft:  May 2022
Unpublished manuscript



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Current draft
Slides
bibtex


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Jumpstarting an International Currency

Current version: July 2022
First draft:  March 2020
with Saleem Bahaj​
CEPR discussion paper 14793
CFM discussion paper 
2015
Bank of England Working Paper 874
Current draft
Working paper version
Slides
Video of presentation
​bibtex
How Likely is an Inflation Disaster?

Current version: February 2022
First draft:  February 2021
with Jens Hilscher and Alon Raviv
CEPR discussion paper 17224

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Current draft
Working paper version
Slides
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Video of presentation
​bibtex
The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations
​​
Current version: December 2020
First draft:  October 2020
CFM discussion paper​ 2033



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Current draft
Slides
Video of presentation
​bibtex
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The Constraint on Public Debt When r < g But g < m
​
Current version: March 2021
First draft:  November 2020
CEPR discussion paper 15950​
CFM discussion paper 2111
BIS working paper 939

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Current draft
Working paper version
Video of presentation
Slides
​bibtex
Value
v
v
​Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles

Current version: September 2020
First draft:  April 2009
​with Vasco Cúrdia
CEPR discussion paper 7712
NBER working paper 15774
FRB NY staff report 434
​​
Current draft
Working paper version
​bibtex

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​Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves
​​
Current version: May 2017
First draft:  January 2014
with Robert E. Hall.
CEPR discussion paper 11578
NBER working paper 22761
CFM discussion paper 1634 
Hoover Institution working paper 16114​
Current draft
Working paper version
Slides
​bibtex​
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​Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking

Current version: July 2015
First draft:  February 2013.
with Robert E. Hall.
​CEPR discussion paper 10741
NBER working paper 21173
Hoover Institution working paper 15109​​
​
Current draft
Working paper version
Replication Codes
Slides
​bibtex
​​.
When Should Policymakers Make Announcements?
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Current version: September 2011
First draft: June 2010
Unpublished manu​script



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Resting draft
Slides
​bibtex
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A Dynamic Measure of Inflation

Current version: April 2009
First draft: June 2005
NBER working paper 11746 


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Resting draft
Working paper version
​bibtex
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Published Articles

​Title
​With whom and where
​Materials
Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation

​​​
​American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 113, 47-51, May 2023


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Slides
​bibtex
What Can Keep Euro Area Inflation High?
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​​Economic Policy, forthcoming, 2023


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​Local copy
Published version
Slides
Video of presentation
​bibtex
Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: Measurement and Implications


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​​In ECB Forum on Central Banking: Challenges for Monetary Policy in Rapidly Changing World, 2022

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Replication codes
Slides
Video of presentation
​bibtex
How Was the United States Government Able to Borrow So Much During the COVID-19 Pandemic?
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In Preserving Employer-Employee Links in the COVID-19 Era, edited by Michael Strain and Stan Veuger, American Enterprise Institute Press, chapter 10, 246-263, 2023.​
Local copy
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Replication codes
Slides
​
bibtex
​​​The Workings of Liquidity Lines Between Central Banks​


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with Saleem Bahaj
​​In The Research Handbook of Financial Markets, edited by Refet Gurkaynak and Jonathan Wright, Edward-Elgar, chapter 5, 102-124, May 2023.
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Slides
Video of presentation
​bibtex
The Burst of High Inflation in 2021-22: How and Why Did We Get Here?
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In ​​How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve--And How to Get it Back, edited by Michael Bordo, John Cochrane, and John Taylor, Hoover Institution Press, chapter 9, pp. 203-250, March 2023.
​Local copy
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Slides
​bibtex
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​Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt
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​​

​Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(4), 103-124, Fall 2022.


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Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex

The Economics of Liquidity Lines Between Central Banks
​
​with Saleem Bahaj
​Annual Review of Financial Economics, 14 (1), 57-74, November 2022
​Local copy
Published version
​bibtex
Helicopter Money: What Is It and What Does It Do? 

​

with Silvana Tenreyro
​​Annual Review of Economics, 14 (1), 313-335, August 2022.
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Local copy
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Online appendix
​bibtex
Central Bank Swap Lines: Evidence on the Lender of Last Resort


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with Saleem Bahaj
Review of Economic Studies, 89(4), 1654-1693, July 2022.



Local copy
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Replication codes
Online appendix
Slides
​bibtex
Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment

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with Jens Hilscher and Alon Raviv
​Review of Financial Studies, 35 (3), 1553-1595, March 2022.
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Online appendix
Slides
​bibtex
Steady Prices, Sustainable Debt
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Finance & Development, 17-19, March 2022.
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Local copy
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​bibtex

Losing the Inflation Anchor
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​Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 307-361, Fall 2021.



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Local copy
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Replication codes
Video of presentation
Slides
​bibtex
Optimal Automatic Stabilizers

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​with Alisdair McKay
​​​Review of Economic Studies, 88 (5), 2375-2406, October 2021.


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​Local copy
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Online appendix

Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
Comment on "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Yes, But, We Disagree"
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NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 35, 99-111, May 2021.

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Slides
​bibtex
The ECB Strategy: The 2021 Review and Its Future


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with Lucrezia Reichlin, Klaus Adam, Warwick McKibbin, Michael McMahon, Giovanni Ricco, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro. 
​​​CEPR Press, 2021.
Local copy
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​bibtex

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The Fiscal Footprint of Macroprudential Policy



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​​​In Independence, Credibility, and Communication of Central Banking, edited by E. Pasten, R. Reis, and D. Saravia, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 133-171, 2021.
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​bibtex
Independence, Credibility, and Communication of Central Banking: An Overview
​


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​​​Introduction to edited volume: Independence, Credibility, and Communication of Central Banking, edited by E. Pasten, R. Reis, and D. Saravia, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 1-14, 2021.
Local copy
Published version
​bibtex



Central Bank Swap Lines during the COVID-19 Pandemic​
​​
​with Saleem Bahaj.
Covid Economics, 2, 1-12, April 2020.
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​Local copy
Published version
​bibtex
The Anchoring of Long-Run Inflation Expectations Today

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​​Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, BIS Papers 111, March 2020.

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Local copy
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Slides
​bibtex
The Second Decade of the Euro: Old Challenges in New Clothes
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​​In ECB Forum on Central Banking: 20 Years of European Economic and Monetary Union, 132-141, June 2019.

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Local copy
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Video
Slides
​bibtex
A Solution to Sudden Stops

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Finance & Development, 56 (2), June 2019.
​

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Local copy
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Slides
​bibtex
Central Banks Going Long



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​In: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edited by A. Aguirre, M. Brunnermeier, and D. Saravia, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 43-81, 2019. 
Local copy
Published version
​Spanish version

Video
Slides
​bibtex
Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? 



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​In The Economics of Central Banking​, edited by David Mayes, Pierre Siklos and Jan-Egbert Strum, Oxford University Press Handbooks in Economics, March 2019, Oxford University Press.
​​Local copy
Published version
​bibtex
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Comment on “Inflation Expectations – a Policy Tool?”

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​​In ECB Forum on Central Banking: Price and Wage-Setting in Advanced Economies, 152-163, June 2018.
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​bibtex

​Comment on "Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs"

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International Journal of Central Banking, 14 (3), 325-335, June 2018.
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​bibtex
​Comment on "Michelson-Morley, Fisher and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Lower Bound"
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​​NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 32, 246-260, May 2018.

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​​​Local copy
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​bibtex
Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought
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with N. Gregory Mankiw​
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32 (1), 81-96, Winter 2018.
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​​Local copy
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Slides
​bibtex
Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics?
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​Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34 (1-2), 132-155, 2018.
​

Local copy
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​bibtex
And Yet it Moves. Inflation and the Great Recession

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with David Miles, Ugo Panizza, and Angel Ubide
Geneva Reports on the World Economy 19, CEPR Press, 2017.
​​​Local copy
Published version
​
Pure inflation series
​bibtex
QE in the Future: The Central Bank's Balance Sheet in a Fiscal Crisis​

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IMF Economic Review, 65, 1-42, 2017.

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​​​Local copy
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Slides
​bibtex
ESBies: Safety in the Tranches
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​with Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sam Langfield, Marco Pagano, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos.
Economic Policy. 32 (40), 177-219, April 2017.
​​​Local copy
Published version
Slides
​bibtex
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Comment on "Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?"
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NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 31, 198-207, May 2017.

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Local copy
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Slides
​bibtex
Funding Quantitative Easing to Target Inflation
​


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In Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 423-479, August 2016.
​​​​Local copy
Published version
​bibtex

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The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies




​
with Markus K. Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos.
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 106 (5), 508-512, May 2016.
Local copy
Longer working paper version
Published version
Online appendix
​bibtex
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Comment on "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina"
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 98-106, Spring 2016.
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​Local copy
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Slides
​bibtex
Reinforcing the Eurozone and Protecting an Open Society: Monitoring the Eurozone II


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with Giancarlo Corsetti, Lars P Feld, Ralph S.J. Koijen, Lucrezia Reichlin, Hélène Rey, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
CEPR Press, 2016.
​​Local copy
Published version
​bibtex

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Comment on "External and Public Debt Crises"

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NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 30, 245-256, May 2016.


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Local copy
Published version
Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle
​


​
with Alisdair McKay.
Econometrica, 84 (1), 141-194, January 2016.


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​Local copy 
Published version
Online appendix

Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
Looking for a Success in the Euro Crisis Adjustment Programs: the Case of Portugal

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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 433-447, Fall 2015.


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​Local copy 
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Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
​Different Types of Central Bank Insolvency and the Central Role of Seignorage
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Journal of Monetary Economics, 73, 20-25, July 2015.


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Local copy 
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Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
Gerir a Dívida Pública

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In Afirmar o Futuro: Políticas Públicas para Portugal, ed. by Paulo T. Pereira and Viriato S. Marques, Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, 26-43, 2015
​​Local copy 
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Slides
​bibtex
Central Bank Design
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Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27 (4), 17-44, Fall 2013.


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​​​Local copy 
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Video of presentation
Slides
​bibtex
The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 46, 143-193, Spring 2013.


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​​​Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis

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​​​
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 103 (3), 135-40, May 2013.
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​​​Local copy
Longer working paper version 
Published version
Slides
​bibtex
Exit Strategies and the Federal Reserve
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In No Way Out: Government Interventions and the Financial Crisis, edited by Vincent Reinhart, American Enterprise Institute Press, February 2013.
​Local copy 
Published version
Slides
​bibtex
​

Targeted Transfers and the Fiscal Response to the Great Recession


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with Hyunseung Oh
Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, S50-S64, December 2012.

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Local copy
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Online appendix

Replication codes
​bibtex
Comment on "Testing for Keynesian Labor Demand"


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NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 27, 350-361, May 2013.

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​Local copy 
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Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
Comment on "The Euro's Three Crises"
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 212-219, Spring 2012.
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​​Local copy 
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​bibtex
Solução para Portugal: fazer mais com os Portugueses
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Portugal e o Futuro: Homenagem a Ernâni Lopes, edited by J. Vasconcellos e Sá, Vida Económica, 177-186, 2011.
​​​Local copy 
Published version
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​bibtex
ESBies: A Realistic Reform of Europe's Financial Architecture
​



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​with Markus Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos. 
In The Future of Banking: A VoxEu.org Book, edited by Thorsten Beck, 15-20, October 2011.
Local copy 
Published version
​bibtex




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European Safe Bonds (ESBies)



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​with Markus Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn van Nieuwerburgh and Dimitri Vayanos. ​
euro-nomics.com, September 2011.
​Local copy 
Published version
​
​bibtex
​

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Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply


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with N. Gregory Mankiw
In Handbook of Monetary Economics, edited by B. Friedman and M. Woodford, Elsevier-North Holland, vol. 3A, chapter 5, 183-230, 2010.
Local copy 
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Replication codes
Slides
​bibtex
Comment on "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?"
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​Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 245-253, Fall 2010.

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Slides
​bibtex
​Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation and the Phillips Correlation


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with Mark W. Watson.
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2 (3), 128-157, July 2010.
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​Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
Original published estimates
Revised (2017) Matlab Codes
​bibtex
Dynamic Measures of Inflation
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​NBER Reporter, 3, September 2009.
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​Local copy 
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​bibtex
Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 40, 119-165, Spring 2009.
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Local copy 
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​bibtex
A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis
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In Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edited by K. Schmidt-Heubel, C. Walsh and N. Loayza, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, chapter 8, 227-283, 2009.
Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
​Package for SI models
​bibtex
Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model

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American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1 (2), 1-28, July 2009.
​

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Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
LinLagEx package
​bibtex
The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations
Journal of the European Economic Association, 7 (4), 722-753, June 2009.
​
Local copy 
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​bibtex
The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions

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with Alisdair McKay
Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (4), 738-751, May 2008.

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Local copy 
Published version
Online appendix

Replication codes
​bibtex
Using VARs to Identify Models of Fiscal Policy: A Comment on Perotti​

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NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 22, 227-236, May 2008.​
​

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Replication codes
​bibtex
Sticky Information in General Equilibrium
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with  N. Gregory Mankiw
Journal of the European Economic Association, 5 (2-3), 603-613, April-May 2007.
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Local copy
Longer working paper version 
Published version 
Erratum
Dynare code (Verona-Wolters)
​bibtex
The Persistence of Inflation in the United States
​

​
with Frederic Pivetta.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31 (4), 1326-1358, April 2007.
​Local copy 
Published version
​bibtex
The Analytics of Monetary Non-Neutrality in the Sidrauski Model
​​
Economics Letters, 94 (1), 129-135, January 2007.
​​
​Local copy 
Published version
​bibtex
Inattentive Consumers
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Journal of Monetary Economics, 53 (8), 1761-1800, November 2006.

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Local copy 
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Minor Erratum
​bibtex
Inattentive Producers

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Review of Economic Studies, 73 (3), 793-821, July 2006.
​

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​​Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
​bibtex
Pervasive Stickiness

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with  N. Gregory Mankiw
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 96 (2), 164-169, May 2006.
​​​​​Local copy
Longer working paper version 
Published version 
​bibtex
Understanding the Greenspan Standard
​

​

​
with Alan S. Blinder
In The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 11-96, August 2005.
​​Local copy 
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​bibtex
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Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies

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with  Laurence Ball and N. Gregory Mankiw
Journal of Monetary Economics, 52 (4), 703-725, May 2005.
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​​​Local copy
Longer working paper version  
Published version
Replication codes
​bibtex
Disagreement about Inflation Expectations
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with N. Gregory Mankiw and Justin Wolfers
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 18, 209-248, 2004.​​
​​Local copy 
Published version
Survey expectations series
​bibtex
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What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?
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with N. Gregory Mankiw
Journal of the European Economic Association, 1 (5), 1058-1086, September 2003.
Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
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​bibtex
Where Is the Natural Rate? Rational Policy Mistakes and Persistent Deviations of Inflation from Target
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Advances in Macroeconomics, 3 (1), article 1, 1-40, 2003. (Kenneth Arrow Prize for best economics paper by junior faculty in the B.E. Press in 2003.)
​Local copy 
Published version
Minor Erratum
​bibtex​
Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Non-neutrality and Structural Slumps
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with N. Gregory Mankiw
In Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps, edited by P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz and M. Woodford, Princeton University Press, 64-86, 2003.
Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
​bibtex

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Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
​​
with N. Gregory Mankiw
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117 (4), 1295-1328, November 2002.
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Local copy 
Published version
Replication codes
​bibtex
​Costs of Banking System Instability: Some Empirical Evidence
​

​
​with Glenn Hoggarth and Victoria Saporta
Journal of Banking and Finance, 26 (5), 825-855, May 2002.
​Local copy 
Published version
​bibtex
​

Books

A Crash Course on Crises

Macroeconomic Concepts for Run-Ups, Collapses, and Recoveries
MARKUS K. BRUNNERMEIER AND RICARDO REIS

​
Princeton University Press, 2023
ISBN: 978-0-691-22110-6
​e-book: 978-0-691-22111-3
Available from:
  • Princeton University Press (here)
  • Amazon US (here) UK​ (here) ES/PT​ (here)
  • Bookshop.org UK (here)
Slides and figures for teachers:
  • Slides in pdf and in powerpoint
  • All figures in pdf and Excel with description of data sources
Podcasts, videos, book reviews:
  • Macro Musings podcast
  • Book review in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
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Do FMI à Pandemia 

Portugal Entre Crises
RICARDO REIS

​
Relógio D'Água, 2020
ISBN: 978-989-783-057-0
Available from:
  • Wook (here)
  • Almedina (here)
  • Bertrand (here)
  • Fnac (here)
  • Livraria da Travessa Brasil (here)

Financial support

My research currently benefits from the financial support of:

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